Наше все

Автор: Леус Дмитрий Исаакович

01.12.2015

 Более подходящего заголовка было бы трудно найти, ни какая другая компания, не играет такую важную роль в жизни страны как Газпром. Компания является важным экономическим и политическим составляющим России, отчасти последнее и привело компанию в ситуацию, в которой она сейчас находиться. Но это всё ещё самый дорогой эмитент на нашем фондовом рынки, капитализация( на ноябрь 2015 года) составляет 3,2 триллиона рублей(50 млрд. долларов), или всего 2 доллара за акцию, а в 2008 году было 14 долларов за одну ценную бумагу и капитализация составляла 350 миллиардов долларов. Похоже сейчас акции нащупали своё дно и снижаться ниже не куда, посмотрим на рублевый график котировок (рис.1). Как видно из графика, акции близки к линии поддержки долгосрочного восходящего тренда, и рядом с линей краткосрочного снижающегося тренда, при пробитии которого котировки акций продемонстрируют значительный рост.

Газпром, Дмитрий Леус

Рис.1 Котировки акций Газпрома в 2015 году.

Однако на технических индикаторах далеко не уедешь, должны быть фундаментально обоснованные показатели. И они есть, это одна из самых дешевых газодобывающих компаний в мире, показатель цена/прибыль на уровне 3. Сейчас бюджет России испытывает явный дефицит, и наилучшим способом его пополнить, это увеличить отчисления государственных компаний в виде дивидендов, к тому же росимущество давно призывает выплачивать дивиденды в виде 25% от чистой прибыли по международным стандартам финансовой отчетности, а не по российским. Прибыль по МСФО значительно больше у Газпрома, следовательно и дивиденды будут выше.

Все говорят про Китай, что его темпы роста замедляются, только ВВП все равно растет, и не плохими темпами, а в абсолютных величинах рост ещё больше. Потребление газа в стране нарастает, свои мощности не справляются, вот и сейчас мы строим газопровод «Сила Сибири», который не только позволит диверсифицировать поставки газа в другие страны, но и освоить перспективные месторождения газа в восточной Сибири. По самым скромным подсчета в ближайшие лет 5-6, Газпром будет экспортировать до 100 млрд. кубометров газа в Китай. Да и экологию им надо улучшать, в Пекине уже дышать скоро станет не чем, кто там был, меня поймут.

На европейском рынке, поставки газа уж точно меньше не будут, чтобы не говорили их политики, добыча газа в Европе снижается, Голландия уже не может снабжать своим газом, месторождения Великобритании также близки к истощению, но и Норвегия не может нарастить свою добычу. Поэтому сейчас и начал реализовываться проект «Северный поток – 2», ускорить реализацию могут выборы 2017 года во Франции и Германии, довольно много избирателей не одобряющих политику местных властей в этих странах. Чтобы соответствовать нормам третьего энергопакета, Газпром уступил часть своей доли европейским партнерам. С «Турецким потоком» сложней, но растущее население страны, заставит быть более сговорчивыми власть.

Да, конечно, строительство всех этих газопроводов потребует больших денежных инвестиций, и поэтому данная идея носит долгосрочный горизонт, но подумайте, какова будет отдача! Сейчас цены на газ находятся на довольно низком уровне, но это не надолго, дефицит заставит вернуться на более привлекательные уровни, и возможно, не в столь отдаленной перспективе. И не забывайте, после грозы, всегда бывает солнце!

“The Development of the Russian Regions is Our Means of Survival 3” Dmitry Leus

- I have often heard private bankers complain that the mortgage sector is an “unlevel” playing field. Do you agree that privately-owned and state banks are not competing at arm’s length?

- Dmitry Leus: I agree, but we should keep in mind that unequal conditions do not only prevail on the mortgage market. A big player such as Sberbank is able to provide SME lending at a rate of 8% p.a. whereas our average-weighted cost of funds ranges between 8.5 and 8.75%.

On the other hand, we have our own competitive advantages. We can afford to show flexibility when it comes to evidentiary requirements with regard to a client’s income. In addition, as a small bank, we can immediately adapt to sudden market changes. To turn around a big bank is something else. Our mortgage rates are therefore cheaper than Sberbank’s at the moment. This is because we were recently able to sell an important portfolio of securities, and have even excess liquidity now. These funds need to be invested somewhere, and this enables us to lend at lower margins.

Every international consultant will confirm that an ideal credit portfolio should have the following outlook: 50% of it should be invested into collateralized loans, 10-15% should be invested into consumer lending, or other high-yield credits, and 20-30% should be kept in treasury bonds or other safe-haven securities which can easily be sold or refinanced with the Central Bank.

- You have recently engaged in consumer lending. What has been your experience?

- Dmitry Leus: We had mortgage rates starting at 9.95% and noticed that some client agreed to these conditions. The average rate on the market is currently 10%. We can afford lower rates and have no plans to raise them because we dispose of sufficient liquidity. However, at some point we will nevertheless have to increase our rates, because the next wave of funding is likely to be more expensive. In any event, consumer loans are a good way of boosting our overall profitability

- There are many similar products on the market now.  What is your competitive advantage?

- Dmitry Leus: The most important thing in consumer lending is a good organization of sales, in addition to a high-quality client service. For instance, our “New Year’s Loan” is designed for people who cannot afford to buy Christmas presents for their beloved ones. What counts for such clients is the speed at which the loan is issued. They are not bothered by the fact that they will have to pay a premium of RUB 200 per month. We can offer a quick service if the client has good scores and underwriting results. The first criterion is credit scores. Some lenders get satisfied with good scores and will mechanically award the loan. For us, scoring is just the first step, the second step being underwriting. We may not have the lowest rates on the market, but in order to keep default rates low we put quality over volume.

- Let’s return to funding.  Is it correct to say that client deposits constitute about half of your liabilities?

- Dmitry Leus: Yes, we have more than RUB 9bn in deposits and an overall balance of RUB 18.5bn.

- At the same time, I understand you are not attracting clients by means of higher deposit rates. By which means do you attract them?

- Dmitry Leus: I have the impression that we have less and less people shopping around and going from bank to bank in search of the best interest rates.

- Well, I shop around...

“The Development of the Russian Regions is Our Means of Survival” Dmitry Leus

The Russian banking system is showing signs of a liquidity crisis, with growing fears of a financial crisis, and Alexei Kudrin is speaking about a full-fledged economic crisis. At the same time, the Chairman of Bank Zapadny, Dmitry Leus, speaks about hyper-liquidity and contemplates conducting an IPO.

- Dmitry Isaakovich, there is a general belief that small banks must specialize in order to be successful. On the other hand, you offer a relatively broad product line and behave like a universal bank. Why did you choose such a strategy?

- Dmitry Leus: The truth is that we are not a universal bank in the full sense of the term, as our main focus is still in retail banking. But our retail offering is universal indeed – mortgage loans, car loans, overdraft loans, and other consumer lending products. When it comes to loans for small and medium-sized enterprises (SME), we currently adopt a more cautious approach. I am not saying that we are not working at all in that sector, but corporate lending requires a more complex analysis of our customers. In addition, the last two years have seen defaults mostly in the sector of SME lending.

On the other hand, an analysis of default statistics shows that mortgage lending is a relatively safe product. Unfortunately, it is impossible to survive from mortgages only, due to lower profit margins in this segment.

- Can you tell us more about the mortgage lending market? Are you working with the Agency for Housing Mortgage Lending (AHML), an institution studying the international experience of mortgage lending in order to introduce best practices into Russia?

- Dmitry Leus: AHML requires its partners to fulfil certain criteria. However, in my opinion, a large part of our country does not meet these criteria. Unfortunately, unofficial revenues still constitute an important part of the Russian economy.

In general, the belief that credit should only be awarded based on documented income is misguided. Take a 15-year mortgage – who in our country can look back to a 15-years track record within one single company? The focus should therefore be on the collateral. If a loan can be justified in light of the collateral, then less attention should be given to the income history of the creditor.

- Does that mean that you raise capital based on your liabilities?

- Dmitry Leus: Correct. We basically use deposits when lending, in addition to the Bank’s capital, of course.

- Is this not too risky? A bank’s liabilities are of a short-term nature, as deposits may be withdrawn at any moment. A bank’s assets, however, often take years to mature.

- Dmitry Leus: I do not deny that there is a certain risk involved. Nevertheless, on average, a mortgage loan’s maturity amounts to 5 years. In addition, any loan, even if it hasn’t been awarded according to AHML standards, may be ultimately sold. Sberbank, for instance, offers such programmes, as well as the other banks. There are also partner programmes that allow raising liquidity when necessary. But for us this is the last resort, because it is not our goal to work as an agent. We intend to preserve our client base and to offer them the products and services they ask for.

Dmitry Leus: I see great potential in the revival of small and medium-sized businesses 3

As stated earlier, when a financial institution concentrates on a few core products, it is already taking an important risk. We have therefore taken the decision to enlarge our product line to include lending offerings for SMBs in the Russian regions, in addition to corporate lending.

- What motivated your decision to develop SMB lending?

- Dmitry Isaakovich Leus: First and foremost, we came to the conclusion that our financial positions would allow such an undertaking. Secondly, we already had in-depth knowledge of this market and had the feeling that we understood our future customers well. In addition, the platform was already in place – a professional team, our prior expertise, functioning IT solutions, in addition to regional presence.

- Which are the most popular products your bank offers for SMBs? Are there any joint programs?

- Dmitry Leus: Our lending solutions for SMBs do not exceed RUB 3m - with a minimal amount of RUB 30k and durations not exceeding 3 years. Interest rates are calculated on a case-by-case basis reflecting the client’s financial indicators, with a minimal interest rate of 15% p.a. For seasonal businesses, we may even provide for individual repayment schedules.

To qualify for a loan, a company must have been on the market for over a year, and state participation should not exceed 25%. Also, the company’s headcount should not be over 250 people. The company must have met all its tax and social obligations. On the other hand, we do not have any preference with regard to the nature of the business and are prepared to deal with companies operating in such various sectors as shops, restaurants, hotels, software firms, building companies, and car service stations. In short, everyone is welcome.

When making the credit decision, we analyze a company’s business plan, its financial situation, in addition to its credit history with other banks, etc. The company should have sound financials and be profitable.

We stimulate entrepreneurs to engage in joint ventures and are prepared to gain a deep understanding of their core activities. Bank  has an individual approach to every borrower. We are interested in long-term partnerships with our corporate clients. Hence we invite them to transfer their working capital to the bank. This allows the bank to easily analyze its clients’ financial condition and provides our clients with the opportunity to deepen collaboration through more favorable conditions and interest rates.

We practically do not take account-keeping commissions and, where we do, such commissions are in stark disproportion to the liquidity provided. Rather, having our clients’ account with us enables us to better understand their operating activities, thereby increasing transparency. Based on my experience, I can say that most clients remain faithful to us event long after the loan has been returned. It means that we have finally gained their trust. They know that they have earned their right for future preferential treatment. In addition, we know the management team of such companies, their market standing, and many other details.

- Over the last year, Bank  has significantly increased its presence in the Russian regions. What dictated such a move? Is it the smaller amount of initial capital investments, the lower level of competition with other financial market players, or a heightened focus on the revival of SMBs in the Russian regions?

- Dmitry Leus: This choice was determined by a whole range of factors. First of all, corporate borrowers in the regions are much more disciplined – their default rate is below 1 percent. Secondly, in opposition to the capital, the regional credit market is not overheated. There is a lack of financial institutions in small Russian towns, and clients are far more attentive to new opportunities. Our regional network counts over 70 branches, with a rising tendency. Our strategy in this regard is very simple: we open a branch, take it to its break-even point, and then we open a new one. Finally, with regard to organizational issues, it is easier to set up a new business in the Russian regions. Our managers have the opportunity to visit their customers, evaluate their businesses, and establish a personal relationship.

In the long run, I see great potential in the revival of small and medium-sized businesses in the Russian regions.

Dmitry Leus: I see great potential in the revival of small and medium-sized businesses

- This is open for debate. The crisis has also shown that repayment shortfalls have only slowly increased in the segment of consumer lending. At the same time, corporate creditors have had recourse to several tricks such as automatic roll-overs in order to hide away their repayment difficulties.

- Dmitry Leus: I agree with your observation. Every credit decision happens against the background of a bank’s financial risk management.

Bank  disposes of a strict system for financial risk modelling. Every day, we receive approximately 2500 new credit requests from private individuals. Among all these requests, only about 18% receive final credit approval. In addition, repayment shortfalls of up to 60 days are addressed by our debt collection services. The latter’s collection strategy is continuously being adapted to prevailing market conditions. For example, there existed a period when we completely stopped lending to individuals under the age of 25, as we observed a specific age-related difficulty when it came to repayment discipline.

Furthermore, our analysts are monitoring Bank ’s credit portfolio on an ongoing basis. We provide RUB 1bn of finance to the Russian population every month, which constitutes a relatively small amount. On the other hand, it is just enough to subject our credit portfolio to a thorough analysis and take ad-hoc decisions when needed. In light of Bank ’s 70 branches across Russia, I may add that working in the Russian regions has proven easier than in the capital, as loan repayment rates have historically been higher in the periphery. In total, our current private-loan default rate amounts to only 6 percent.

In contrast, in the realm of small and mid-size businesses we have so far practically not seen any arrears at all, which may be due to the fact that we have just entered this market. Thanks to our cautious approach to risk, I am convinced that our default rate in this segment will be even lower than during our private lending activities.

Let us not forget that consumer lending in general is a mass market that is dominated by standardized processes. SMB lending, on the other hand, allows for an individual approach which takes into consideration the multitude of layers of a credit request. Thus, prior to being forwarded to our centralized Credit Committee in Moscow, every corporate credit submission is carefully prepared in one of Bank ’s regional branches. For example, our regional credit specialists conduct site visits during which they value the respective company’s market standing, monitor contractual partners, and go through a potential client’s consolidated financial statements. Such an in-depth approach enables us to select the top tier out of 10 applications.

- Your bank has been in existence on the Russian market since 1993. This is an important period in the relatively young Russian banking sector. Bank  has lived through more than one crisis. Based on your experience, which should be the strategy of today’s commercial banks in Russia?

- Dmitry Leus: The survival strategy for niche commercial banks in contemporary Russia with its economic uncertainties consists in sound risk management.

From a business perspective, the secret of success for weathering any crisis consists in the strong will of the bank’s owners and stakeholders to preserve and develop their business. The first thing which is being taught in business administration courses is the theory of economic choice – that is, the choice one must make when faced with two or more alternative uses of a resource. Crisis economics simply dramatizes this basic economic choice.

The banking industry today presents higher risks than other economic sectors. To take these risks is the choice of every shareholder and manager. I arrive at work before 8 am and leave the bank after 8 pm. This is the only way to work in order to achieve good results. The banking industry consists of a multitude of little things hardly recognizable to outsiders. However, taken together they critically impact the bank’s financial results. Every aspect of the business must receive its due attention, starting with administrative tasks and ending with the closure of big transactions. There are a million of details which may escape the attention of the bank’s managing director. A permanently heightened state of alert should therefore become the responsible banker’s second nature. In my opinion, a bank controlled and managed by its owners is the best guarantee of success.

In addition, the right risk management does not consist in doing the maths and then ticking the box. Rather, it consists in picking up the faint signal of today that will become tomorrow’s big challenge – a practice the Austrian economist and management consultant Peter Drucker has called the anticipation of a future that has already happened. Risks are present in every form of business. However, some risks are balanced by reasonable rewards, others are not. The essence of entrepreneurship consists in getting this balance right.