Показаны сообщения с ярлыком leus dmitry. Показать все сообщения
Показаны сообщения с ярлыком leus dmitry. Показать все сообщения

воскресенье, 17 января 2016 г.

Reflected Optimism

Dmitry Isaakovich Leus
The monthly journal “The Banking Review” and the banking portal Banki.ru have spoken with industry experts and collected their forecasts for 2012. Prudence is the dominant mood, but no one is expecting a crash. There is consensus that the regulator and credit institutions have learned their lessons from the past.

DmitryLeus - Chairman of Bank
For objective reasons, the likelihood of a crisis in Russia is significantly lower than in Europe at present. Our banking system is stronger than before and better prepared to withstand severe shocks to the economy. Overall, the regulator and the banking system are better placed than in 2008 to deal with adverse scenarios.
Banks will certainly be making profits the same way as before. However, the probability of credit defaults and lower margins from securities trading has increased. For 2012, we expect three main risks in the banking sector: 1. an increased probability of default on a bank’s retail loans portfolio, 2. losses linked to exchange rate revaluation, and 3. a further deterioration of the liquidity situation in the market. Dmitry Leus


пятница, 15 января 2016 г.

The Russian mortgage market


Dmitry Isaakovich Leus


The crisis years of 2008 and 2009 were characterized by a major decline in all types of lending. Most affected was the sector of long-term personal loans, especially mortgage lending. Dmitry IsaakovichLeus

From January to November 2011, the volume of new mortgages reached RUB 536.7bn. These figures even exceeded the pre-crisis level of 2008, as over 392 752 new mortgage loans were issued to the population. Compared with the same period of the previous year - when the authorities began to actively criticize the situation - the number of loans doubled. Dmitry Isaakovich Leus
The number of loans issued over 2011 is thus in line with official forecasts. In addition to being a case of successful government intervention, these indicators give reason to believe that 2011 will surpass 2008 in total mortgage volume.
This situation was heavily criticized by the government, which was trying to find ways of improving the situation. The main issue was the high mortgage rates which became unaffordable for most of the population and resulted in social tensions.
At last, government intervention led to tangible results and banks started to adjust their mortgage policy.
This positive trend is confirmed by the Chairman of Bank , Dmitry IsaakovichLeus. According to Mr. Leus, the number of approved credit applications at Bank  increased 6 times compared with 2010. Such an impressive growth in lending, according to Dmitry Leus, can be traced directly to the government’s successful interest rate policy. Bank ’s current interest rates range between 9.95% and 13.75%, in line with the Russian average of 11.6%.
One of the success factors of the Bank’s lending activities, according to Dmitry Leus, is detailed client information on the full range of mortgage products, in addition to a transparent pricing policy. Transparency may be the main reason why Bank ’s default rate is only 1%, against an all-Russian average of 6.6%.


воскресенье, 10 января 2016 г.

Dmitry Leus: What is a trustworthy bank?

Dmitry Leus

The new law “On Consumer Lending” has passed its first reading in the Russian State Duma. It is expected to make retail banking services more convenient for the general public and is likely to result in an increase in the number of lending requests. It is therefore of paramount importance to rise the level of “financial literacy” among the population. There are currently over 1000 credit institutions in the Russian Federation. But what precisely makes a bank trustworthy? The answer to this question will help millions of borrowers to decide whether to keep their existing banking relationship or to switch to a new one.

Dmitry Leus, Director of the Board of ZAO Bank :

First of all, I would like to attract your attention to the problem of the geographical availability of banking services, in particular in a country as large as Russia. For obvious reasons, most banks prefer to work in big cities. This makes it sometimes difficult for residents of smaller agglomerations to open a bank account and have access to personalized financial advice. We decided to fill this gap.
Last year, we launched a pilot project to establish mini branches in Russia’s small towns. The number of loans issued at these mini branches has already exceeded the number of loans issued at big branches in major cities for the same period of time. Overall, 2012 was a breakthrough year for the Bank, as our retail credit portfolio has more than doubled.
As of today, we operate 45 branches - 9 in the greater Moscow area, and 36 in the Russian regions. Only in the past six months we opened over 22 regional offices - which is some kind of a record. From the point of view of economic development, these branches represent a new resource capacity allowing us to scale up the Bank’s business. From a social point of view, it means new employments in the regions and job security for our staff.
We have already started to work not only in bigger regional centres, but also in small agglomerations with populations over 50 thousand inhabitants.  For example, recently we inaugurated a branch in the small town of Gryazi in the Lipetsk Oblast. Its population does not exceed 46 thousand people, and another 70 thousand live in the nearby villages. It would be unfair to deprive these people of the possibility to open a bank account, make payments, and receive credit.
Let me add that the problem of access to banking services is not only restricted to Russia. The European Union has recently published a proposal to make bank accounts accessible to all European citizens and has spoken of a right to a basic bank account. In its press release, the EU Commission justified the proposal explaining that bank accounts have become essential to participating fully in the economic and social life of a modern society in which the use of cash is decreasing. In fact, studies have shown that over 58 million EU citizens over the age of 15 do not have a payment account.
In this context, a trustworthy bank is a bank which satisfies the right of everyone to a simple bank account irrespective of a person’s place of residence and financial situation. We try to build trust on our general openness and transparency, including the transparency related to the fees we charge.
Returning to Russia and the Russian regions, I would also like to highlight the strong financial discipline of small-town borrowers.  Their positive credit history allows us to award them additional loans at preferential rates. 
A banking product which was until now only rarely available in small towns are pensioner loans. When I started to work with elderly people I immediately noticed that they behaved very responsibly. Put differently, they practically did not delay their loan payments. We have therefore no difficulties in providing them with new lending products best tailored to their needs.
It is very important to us that our clients are not losing their time in long waiting lines. To this effect, we monitor in our branches the very possibility of the emergence of a waiting line, for example through an infrastructure of self-servicing terminals allowing our customers to make interest payments independently.
People entrust the bank with one of their most valuable material assets - their lifelong earnings. Against this emotional background, it is important that when visiting the Bank, customers experience a quality of service matching their expectations. Therefore, a trustworthy bank is a bank whose employees, in their everyday customer dealings, give concrete meaning to the notion of trust. It goes without saying that this also implies an attractive compensation plan for our staff.
By way of digression, our clients were the first to appreciate the benefits of our back office reorganization. We set up a new client service center in Voronezh, thereby successfully integrating our call center, credit research center, IT department, and operations. Streamlining these processes has been instrumental in enhancing the client’s overall service experience.
It is not necessary to have a financial education to understand that a trustworthy bank in the financial sense of the term is a bank with a solid capitalisation. has recently increased its share capital by almost RUB 1bn, thereby improve its creditworthiness before its customers.
Currently, our Board of Directors is considering the issue of another 2.5bn of ordinary shares at RUB 1 each, to be placed on the Moscow Stock Exchange. Once done, anyone can become one of the Bank’s owners. By raising RUB 2.5bn, we expect to increase the Bank’s capital by 127% and the Bank’s total capitalisation will amount to RUB 5.5bn.
With a clear business structure and a flat hierarchy, was able to attract new shareholders in the form of its own regional staff. The bank is also in the process of attracting a number of institutional investors. 
With regard to our development plans, over the next two years, we are planning to reach a return on equity ranging from 35-40%. To achieve this objective, top management has a worked out a clear road map for business development. In addition, a revised long-term strategy of the Bank is in the approval process.  
Let me conclude with some questions which are being asked on a regular basis by our customers themselves: Why should we become your clients? What makes you trustworthy? Why should we not switch to another bank?
My answer is transparency. The growth of our business is obvious. Each month we attract more than ten thousand new customers. These are private individuals, entrepreneurs, representatives of small and medium-sized businesses. By increasing our network of regional branches, we are in the process of doubling our customer base. On a qualitative level, we are observing that the average customer stays with the bank not only longer, but also has recourse to a wider product offering. All this goes hand in hand with increased productivity. Each quarter we see an increase in profit items not related to our lending activities, but rather to our universal banking offering.
All these factors give us self-assurance and confidence. Our shareholders and employees believe in the Bank’s future, and this may be another distinctive feature of a trustworthy bank.

понедельник, 21 декабря 2015 г.

Dmitry Leus - Mortgages: Both Sides of the Medal

Dmitry Leus: “If income allows it, I advise early mortgage repayment”

Buying a property is certainly not a situation when one should “jump in feet first”, in particular when it comes to taking out a mortgage. Which are the main points potential mortgage buyers should keep in mind?
Suppose you decided to improve your housing situation: buy your own flat, move from a two-bedroom flat into a three-bedroom apartment, or move closer to the centre. The decision is taken..., but you cannot afford it. That is the exact moment when the concept of the mortgage comes to mind.
Some view mortgages as a form of modern enslavement but, honestly, saving millions is a difficult task for common mortals. Of course, mortgages have their advantages and disadvantages. There are a lot of small but important details borrowers should know in order to avoid trouble. One thing is clear - on your road to the paradise of home owners, do not stop at the first bank, and do not blindly agree to all conditions.
Take it or leave it
In summer 2011, the mortgage market was very attractive for borrowers - thousands of offers, promotions, discounts, as lenders competed to win over customers.
Then came fears over the possibility of a “second wave” of the crisis. And things on the mortgage market began to change...
Currently, banks have started to raise interest rates on loans, including mortgages. For the moment the increase is still small, not over 1 percent, but that may change...
“In the current macroeconomic environment, new home owners wishing to apply for a mortgage should act quickly”, recommends the Chairman of Dmitry Leus, justifying his position by expert opinion stating that interest rates are not expected to fall in the short to mid-term. Quite the opposite: “in fact, in crisis situations, banks not only tend to increase interest rates, but also to adopt more restrictive mortgage approval processes”, explains the banking specialist. “In other words, client applications run a greater risk of being rejected, as assumptions are tested against a more pessimistic scenario, and documentary evidence requirements with regard to client data such as income history undergo higher scrutiny”, says DmitryLeus.
“Many banks have begun to tighten credit conditions. This is the result of increased costs of credit resources. Better to jump on the bandwagon of low rates right now”, equally confirms Sergei Arzyantsev, Head of Mortgage Lending at Nomos Bank.


воскресенье, 20 декабря 2015 г.

Генерация за копейки - Дмитрий Исаакович Леус

Дмитрий Исаакович Леус

Оптовая генерирующая компания № 2(или просто ОГК-2) сформировалась в результате реформы РАО ЕЭС в середине 2000-ых годов. ОГК-2 одна из крупнейших электрогенерирующих компаний России для оптового рынка, с установленной мощностью около 18 ГВт. Основным собственником компании является компания Газпромэнергохолдинг, кому она принадлежит не трудно догадаться из названия.
Выработка и реализация электроэнергия, это своего рода показатель состояния дел в экономике страны, чем больше её производят, тем выше показатели темпов роста экономике. К сожалению, с 2011 года темпы роста экономики нашей страны неуклонно снижались, пока совсем не свалились в рецессию и спад. Как результат и акции компании ОГК-2 снизились с 2 рублей 2010 года, до 20 копеек в нынешнем году (см. Рисунок №1). Но не только это повлияло на столько радикальное снижение стоимости компании, при разделе РАО ЕЭС новые компании получили обязательства по вводу новых мощностей, так называемые договора о предоставлении мощности. Компания ОГК – 2 до 2018 года должна ввести в строй более 3 ГВт новых электростанций, финансирования строительства легко тяжким грузом на компанию, пришлось привлекать долгосрочные кредиты и займы. В условиях избытка мощности, возросла конкуренция, в отрасли остается много не востребованной генерации. Не до конца проработанные и отрегулированные механизмы энергетического рынка, также оказали негативный эффект на всю отрасль.
Рисунок №1. Котировки ОГК-2 в 2015 году.
Но не все так плохо в компании. В 2016 году компании предстоит ввести большую часть новой электрогенерирующей мощности, выполнив свои обязательства по договору о предоставлении мощности, что позволит увеличить выручку значительно, так как согласно этим договорам новая мощность будет оплачиваться по повышенным тарифам. Новые блоки более экономично расходуют природные ресурсы, это сократит издержки в производстве электроэнергии. Плюс ко всему, строительство большинства объектов завершиться, и это уберет значительную статью затрат в бухгалтерской отчетности компании. Компания уже начинает выплачивать дивиденды, а с годами они будут только расти и расти.
В конце этого года Минэнерго проведет конкурентный отбор мощности на три года, 2017 – 2019 года, ОГК-2 имеет хорошие шансы на отбор большего числа своей мощности. Поддержку должна оказать восстанавливающая экономика страны, возрастет число потребителей и объём потребления электроэнергии.
Материнская компания намеривается подготовить IPO Газпромэнергохолдинга, собственника ОГК-2, а перед IPO цены на активы повышаются в разы, ни кто не хочет продать дешево за копейки хороший актив. Правда будет это не раньше 2017-2018 года, но ни что не мешает вырасти акциям компании к этому времени. Сейчас ОГК-2 имеет самый низкий коэффициент по соотношению цена/установленная мощность, по сравнению с другими компаниям сектора электрогенерации.
С технической точки зрения сейчас идеальный момент для покупки акций, котировки близки к восходящей линии тренда и к линии сопротивления на уровне 20 копеек. А как вы сами видите, котировки компании, преодолев уровень сопротивления, повысились в 2 раза в текущем году, продемонстрировав, насколько актив недооценен. Сейчас и технически, и фундаментально компания имеет потенциал хорошего роста. Спешите купить генерацию за копейки, скоро она уже будет стоить рубли.

пятница, 18 декабря 2015 г.

Наше все

01.12.2015
 Более подходящего заголовка было бы трудно найти, ни какая другая компания, не играет такую важную роль в жизни страны как Газпром. Компания является важным экономическим и политическим составляющим России, отчасти последнее и привело компанию в ситуацию, в которой она сейчас находиться. Но это всё ещё самый дорогой эмитент на нашем фондовом рынки, капитализация( на ноябрь 2015 года) составляет 3,2 триллиона рублей(50 млрд. долларов), или всего 2 доллара за акцию, а в 2008 году было 14 долларов за одну ценную бумагу и капитализация составляла 350 миллиардов долларов. Похоже сейчас акции нащупали своё дно и снижаться ниже не куда, посмотрим на рублевый график котировок (рис.1). Как видно из графика, акции близки к линии поддержки долгосрочного восходящего тренда, и рядом с линей краткосрочного снижающегося тренда, при пробитии которого котировки акций продемонстрируют значительный рост.
Газпром, Дмитрий Леус
Газпром, Дмитрий Леус
Рис.1 Котировки акций Газпрома в 2015 году.
Однако на технических индикаторах далеко не уедешь, должны быть фундаментально обоснованные показатели. И они есть, это одна из самых дешевых газодобывающих компаний в мире, показатель цена/прибыль на уровне 3. Сейчас бюджет России испытывает явный дефицит, и наилучшим способом его пополнить, это увеличить отчисления государственных компаний в виде дивидендов, к тому же росимущество давно призывает выплачивать дивиденды в виде 25% от чистой прибыли по международным стандартам финансовой отчетности, а не по российским. Прибыль по МСФО значительно больше у Газпрома, следовательно и дивиденды будут выше.
Все говорят про Китай, что его темпы роста замедляются, только ВВП все равно растет, и не плохими темпами, а в абсолютных величинах рост ещё больше. Потребление газа в стране нарастает, свои мощности не справляются, вот и сейчас мы строим газопровод «Сила Сибири», который не только позволит диверсифицировать поставки газа в другие страны, но и освоить перспективные месторождения газа в восточной Сибири. По самым скромным подсчета в ближайшие лет 5-6, Газпром будет экспортировать до 100 млрд. кубометров газа в Китай. Да и экологию им надо улучшать, в Пекине уже дышать скоро станет не чем, кто там был, меня поймут.
На европейском рынке, поставки газа уж точно меньше не будут, чтобы не говорили их политики, добыча газа в Европе снижается, Голландия уже не может снабжать своим газом, месторождения Великобритании также близки к истощению, но и Норвегия не может нарастить свою добычу. Поэтому сейчас и начал реализовываться проект «Северный поток – 2», ускорить реализацию могут выборы 2017 года во Франции и Германии, довольно много избирателей не одобряющих политику местных властей в этих странах. Чтобы соответствовать нормам третьего энергопакета, Газпром уступил часть своей доли европейским партнерам. С «Турецким потоком» сложней, но растущее население страны, заставит быть более сговорчивыми власть.
Да, конечно, строительство всех этих газопроводов потребует больших денежных инвестиций, и поэтому данная идея носит долгосрочный горизонт, но подумайте, какова будет отдача! Сейчас цены на газ находятся на довольно низком уровне, но это не надолго, дефицит заставит вернуться на более привлекательные уровни, и возможно, не в столь отдаленной перспективе. И не забывайте, после грозы, всегда бывает солнце!

среда, 16 декабря 2015 г.

“The Development of the Russian Regions is Our Means of Survival 3” Dmitry Leus

- I have often heard private bankers complain that the mortgage sector is an “unlevel” playing field. Do you agree that privately-owned and state banks are not competing at arm’s length?
- Dmitry Leus: I agree, but we should keep in mind that unequal conditions do not only prevail on the mortgage market. A big player such as Sberbank is able to provide SME lending at a rate of 8% p.a. whereas our average-weighted cost of funds ranges between 8.5 and 8.75%.
On the other hand, we have our own competitive advantages. We can afford to show flexibility when it comes to evidentiary requirements with regard to a client’s income. In addition, as a small bank, we can immediately adapt to sudden market changes. To turn around a big bank is something else. Our mortgage rates are therefore cheaper than Sberbank’s at the moment. This is because we were recently able to sell an important portfolio of securities, and have even excess liquidity now. These funds need to be invested somewhere, and this enables us to lend at lower margins.
Every international consultant will confirm that an ideal credit portfolio should have the following outlook: 50% of it should be invested into collateralized loans, 10-15% should be invested into consumer lending, or other high-yield credits, and 20-30% should be kept in treasury bonds or other safe-haven securities which can easily be sold or refinanced with the Central Bank.
- You have recently engaged in consumer lending. What has been your experience?
- Dmitry Leus: We had mortgage rates starting at 9.95% and noticed that some client agreed to these conditions. The average rate on the market is currently 10%. We can afford lower rates and have no plans to raise them because we dispose of sufficient liquidity. However, at some point we will nevertheless have to increase our rates, because the next wave of funding is likely to be more expensive. In any event, consumer loans are a good way of boosting our overall profitability
- There are many similar products on the market now.  What is your competitive advantage?
- Dmitry Leus: The most important thing in consumer lending is a good organization of sales, in addition to a high-quality client service. For instance, our “New Year’s Loan” is designed for people who cannot afford to buy Christmas presents for their beloved ones. What counts for such clients is the speed at which the loan is issued. They are not bothered by the fact that they will have to pay a premium of RUB 200 per month. We can offer a quick service if the client has good scores and underwriting results. The first criterion is credit scores. Some lenders get satisfied with good scores and will mechanically award the loan. For us, scoring is just the first step, the second step being underwriting. We may not have the lowest rates on the market, but in order to keep default rates low we put quality over volume.
- Let’s return to funding.  Is it correct to say that client deposits constitute about half of your liabilities?
- Dmitry Leus: Yes, we have more than RUB 9bn in deposits and an overall balance of RUB 18.5bn.
- At the same time, I understand you are not attracting clients by means of higher deposit rates. By which means do you attract them?
- Dmitry Leus: I have the impression that we have less and less people shopping around and going from bank to bank in search of the best interest rates.
- Well, I shop around...


понедельник, 14 декабря 2015 г.

Dmitry Isaakovich Leus “The Development of the Russian Regions is Our Means of Survival”

The Russian banking system is showing signs of a liquidity crisis, with growing fears of a financial crisis, and Alexei Kudrin is speaking about a full-fledged economic crisis. At the same time, the Chairman of Bank Zapadny, Dmitry Leus, speaks about hyper-liquidity and contemplates conducting an IPO.
- Dmitry Leus: The truth is that we are not a universal bank in the full sense of the term, as our main focus is still in retail banking. But our retail offering is universal indeed – mortgage loans, car loans, overdraft loans, and other consumer lending products. When it comes to loans for small and medium-sized enterprises (SME), we currently adopt a more cautious approach. I am not saying that we are not working at all in that sector, but corporate lending requires a more complex analysis of our customers. In addition, the last two years have seen defaults mostly in the sector of SME lending.
On the other hand, an analysis of default statistics shows that mortgage lending is a relatively safe product. Unfortunately, it is impossible to survive from mortgages only, due to lower profit margins in this segment.
- Can you tell us more about the mortgage lending market? Are you working with the Agency for Housing Mortgage Lending (AHML), an institution studying the international experience of mortgage lending in order to introduce best practices into Russia?
- Dmitry Leus: AHML requires its partners to fulfil certain criteria. However, in my opinion, a large part of our country does not meet these criteria. Unfortunately, unofficial revenues still constitute an important part of the Russian economy.
In general, the belief that credit should only be awarded based on documented income is misguided. Take a 15-year mortgage – who in our country can look back to a 15-years track record within one single company? The focus should therefore be on the collateral. If a loan can be justified in light of the collateral, then less attention should be given to the income history of the creditor.
- Does that mean that you raise capital based on your liabilities?
- Dmitry Leus: Correct. We basically use deposits when lending, in addition to the Bank’s capital, of course.
- Is this not too risky? A bank’s liabilities are of a short-term nature, as deposits may be withdrawn at any moment. A bank’s assets, however, often take years to mature.
- Dmitry Leus: I do not deny that there is a certain risk involved. Nevertheless, on average, a mortgage loan’s maturity amounts to 5 years. In addition, any loan, even if it hasn’t been awarded according to AHML standards, may be ultimately sold. Sberbank, for instance, offers such programmes, as well as the other banks. There are also partner programmes that allow raising liquidity when necessary. But for us this is the last resort, because it is not our goal to work as an agent. We intend to preserve our client base and to offer them the products and services they ask for.


суббота, 5 декабря 2015 г.

Наше все

30.11.2015
Банкрот, год назад казалось, что это слово подходит как нельзя лучше к компании Игоря Зюзина – «Мечел». У компании были гигантские долги, более 9 миллиардов долларов, показатель чистый долг/EBITDA зашкаливал за 10, кредиторы один за другим начали требовать возврата долгов в судебном порядке, подавая иски. Капитализация упала до уровня меньше 100 миллионов долларов, со своего пика в 18 миллиардов долларов. Цены на уголь и железную руду падали стремительно, не нащупывая дно и превосходя самые худшие ожидания аналитиков…
Но случилась девальвация рубля, и экономическая ситуация на предприятии начала кардинально меняться, потому что большая часть затрат у компании номинирована в рублях, а солидная часть продукции уходит на экспорт. К тому же компания завершила строительства универсального рельсобалочного стана на челябинском металлургическом комбинате. Начала добычу угля на новом Эльгинском угольном месторождении. И ситуация начала постепенно выправляться, акции компании резко подскочили с 11 до 100 рублей за одну обыкновенную акцию на спекулятивном спросе (см. рисунок №1).
Мечел - Дмитрий Леус
Мечел — Дмитрий Леус
Рисунок 1. Котировки акций Мечел обыкновенная в 2015 году.
Однако ситуация до сих пор не простая. Для того чтобы понять причину таких проблем надо сделать шаг назад в историю. На волне подъёме цен на сырьевые товары компания скупала, по большей части, зарубежные активы сомнительного качества, по завышенным ценам, от которых потом пришлось избавляться за мизерную стоимость, а долги-то остались. Плюс пришлось занимать у банков деньги на освоение Эльгинского угольного месторождения, строительства универсального рельсобалочного стана и модернизацию остального производства. На пике рыночных цен, менеджмент халатно отнесся к возможным рискам, за что компания и поплатилась, когда цены на продукцию в 2012 году начали снижаться, дойдя до того, что компании не хватало денег для погашения процентов по долгам, не говоря уже о самом долге. Также явно не способствовало и замедление темпов роста экономике в нашей стране, подливая масла в разгорающийся огонь.
С девальвацией рубля, у компании появился свет в конце тоннеля, правда очень-очень длинного ещё. Для того, чтобы как-то выправить ситуацию компания начала распродажу части активов, практически избавившись от больше части зарубежных заводов, сократив издержки на их содержание и немного уменьшив свой долг за счет этого.
Главной надеждой у Мечела связаны с Эльгинским угольным месторождением, содержащим более 2 млрд. тонн коксующегося угля, дефицитных марок, ежегодная добыча на котором, после выхода на проектную мощность составит около 30 миллионов тонн. Низкая себестоимость добычи открытым карьерным способом и близость к экспортным морским портам, делают этот актив очень ценным. Уже по итогам этого года добыча составит более 4 миллионов тонн, постепенно увеличивающая от месяца к месяцу. Для дальнейшего освоения, имеется открытая кредитная линия от ВЭБа, на сумму 2 млрд. долларов, которая сейчас заморожена до решения проблем с кредиторами.
А этим проблемы решаются. Уже подписаны соглашения с Газпромбанком и банком ВТБ, до конца года ожидается подписания со Сбербанком, основными кредиторами компании на реструктуризацию долгов, с заморозкой выплат до апреля 2017 года. Облигационные займы также были реструктуризированы. Общий долг сократился до 6,3 млрд. долларов по состоянию на сентябрь 2015 года.
Ещё один актив, который уже начал процесс отдачи, это универсальный рельсобалочный стан челябинского металлургического комбината мощность 1,1 млн. тонн продукции в год. Развитие БАМ и перспективы постройки ВСМ Москва – Казань, дают хорошие надежды на закупки рельсов со стороны РЖД, а при повышение ВВП в стране, и со стороны строительных компаний стоит ожидать закупки продукции.
Даже при таких ценах на сырье (уголь, железную руду, сталь) компания генерирует не плохой денежный поток уже сейчас, а если начнется новый экономический цикл в мире, то стоит ожидать подъёма цен на продукцию. Недавно Джордж Сорос купил крупный пакет акций одной американской угольной компании, уж он то точно знает когда надо покупать.

воскресенье, 22 ноября 2015 г.

“The Development of the Russian Regions is Our Means of Survival” Dmitry Leus





The Russian banking system is showing signs of a liquidity crisis, with growing fears of a financial crisis, and Alexei Kudrin is speaking about a full-fledged economic crisis. At the same time, the Chairman of Bank Zapadny, Dmitry Leus, speaks about hyper-liquidity and contemplates conducting an IPO.

Leus

- Dmitry Leus: The truth is that we are not a universal bank in the full sense of the term, as our main focus is still in retail banking. But our retail offering is universal indeed – mortgage loans, car loans, overdraft loans, and other consumer lending products. When it comes to loans for small and medium-sized enterprises (SME), we currently adopt a more cautious approach. I am not saying that we are not working at all in that sector, but corporate lending requires a more complex analysis of our customers. In addition, the last two years have seen defaults mostly in the sector of SME lending.
On the other hand, an analysis of default statistics shows that mortgage lending is a relatively safe product. Unfortunately, it is impossible to survive from mortgages only, due to lower profit margins in this segment.
- Can you tell us more about the mortgage lending market? Are you working with the Agency for Housing Mortgage Lending (AHML), an institution studying the international experience of mortgage lending in order to introduce best practices into Russia?
- Dmitry Leus: AHML requires its partners to fulfil certain criteria. However, in my opinion, a large part of our country does not meet these criteria. Unfortunately, unofficial revenues still constitute an important part of the Russian economy.
In general, the belief that credit should only be awarded based on documented income is misguided. Take a 15-year mortgage – who in our country can look back to a 15-years track record within one single company? The focus should therefore be on the collateral. If a loan can be justified in light of the collateral, then less attention should be given to the income history of the creditor.
- Does that mean that you raise capital based on your liabilities?
- Dmitry Leus: Correct. We basically use deposits when lending, in addition to the Bank’s capital, of course.
- Is this not too risky? A bank’s liabilities are of a short-term nature, as deposits may be withdrawn at any moment. A bank’s assets, however, often take years to mature.
- Dmitry Leus: I do not deny that there is a certain risk involved. Nevertheless, on average, a mortgage loan’s maturity amounts to 5 years. In addition, any loan, even if it hasn’t been awarded according to AHML standards, may be ultimately sold. Sberbank, for instance, offers such programmes, as well as the other banks. There are also partner programmes that allow raising liquidity when necessary. But for us this is the last resort, because it is not our goal to work as an agent. We intend to preserve our client base and to offer them the products and services they ask for.


четверг, 19 ноября 2015 г.

Dmitry Leus: I see great potential in the revival of small and medium-sized businesses 3

Leus

As stated earlier, when a financial institution concentrates on a few core products, it is already taking an important risk. We have therefore taken the decision to enlarge our product line to include lending offerings for SMBs in the Russian regions, in addition to corporate lending.
- What motivated your decision to develop SMB lending?
- Dmitry Isaakovich Leus: First and foremost, we came to the conclusion that our financial positions would allow such an undertaking. Secondly, we already had in-depth knowledge of this market and had the feeling that we understood our future customers well. In addition, the platform was already in place – a professional team, our prior expertise, functioning IT solutions, in addition to regional presence.
- Which are the most popular products your bank offers for SMBs? Are there any joint programs?
- Dmitry Leus: Our lending solutions for SMBs do not exceed RUB 3m - with a minimal amount of RUB 30k and durations not exceeding 3 years. Interest rates are calculated on a case-by-case basis reflecting the client’s financial indicators, with a minimal interest rate of 15% p.a. For seasonal businesses, we may even provide for individual repayment schedules.
To qualify for a loan, a company must have been on the market for over a year, and state participation should not exceed 25%. Also, the company’s headcount should not be over 250 people. The company must have met all its tax and social obligations. On the other hand, we do not have any preference with regard to the nature of the business and are prepared to deal with companies operating in such various sectors as shops, restaurants, hotels, software firms, building companies, and car service stations. In short, everyone is welcome.
When making the credit decision, we analyze a company’s business plan, its financial situation, in addition to its credit history with other banks, etc. The company should have sound financials and be profitable.
We stimulate entrepreneurs to engage in joint ventures and are prepared to gain a deep understanding of their core activities. Bank  has an individual approach to every borrower. We are interested in long-term partnerships with our corporate clients. Hence we invite them to transfer their working capital to the bank. This allows the bank to easily analyze its clients’ financial condition and provides our clients with the opportunity to deepen collaboration through more favorable conditions and interest rates.
We practically do not take account-keeping commissions and, where we do, such commissions are in stark disproportion to the liquidity provided. Rather, having our clients’ account with us enables us to better understand their operating activities, thereby increasing transparency. Based on my experience, I can say that most clients remain faithful to us event long after the loan has been returned. It means that we have finally gained their trust. They know that they have earned their right for future preferential treatment. In addition, we know the management team of such companies, their market standing, and many other details.
- Over the last year, Bank  has significantly increased its presence in the Russian regions. What dictated such a move? Is it the smaller amount of initial capital investments, the lower level of competition with other financial market players, or a heightened focus on the revival of SMBs in the Russian regions?
- Dmitry Leus: This choice was determined by a whole range of factors. First of all, corporate borrowers in the regions are much more disciplined – their default rate is below 1 percent. Secondly, in opposition to the capital, the regional credit market is not overheated. There is a lack of financial institutions in small Russian towns, and clients are far more attentive to new opportunities. Our regional network counts over 70 branches, with a rising tendency. Our strategy in this regard is very simple: we open a branch, take it to its break-even point, and then we open a new one. Finally, with regard to organizational issues, it is easier to set up a new business in the Russian regions. Our managers have the opportunity to visit their customers, evaluate their businesses, and establish a personal relationship.
In the long run, I see great potential in the revival of small and medium-sized businesses in the Russian regions.


вторник, 17 ноября 2015 г.

Dmitry Leus: I see great potential in the revival of small and medium-sized businesses

Леус Дмитрий Исаакович

- This is open for debate. The crisis has also shown that repayment shortfalls have only slowly increased in the segment of consumer lending. At the same time, corporate creditors have had recourse to several tricks such as automatic roll-overs in order to hide away their repayment difficulties.
- Dmitry Leus: I agree with your observation. Every credit decision happens against the background of a bank’s financial risk management.
Bank  disposes of a strict system for financial risk modelling. Every day, we receive approximately 2500 new credit requests from private individuals. Among all these requests, only about 18% receive final credit approval. In addition, repayment shortfalls of up to 60 days are addressed by our debt collection services. The latter’s collection strategy is continuously being adapted to prevailing market conditions. For example, there existed a period when we completely stopped lending to individuals under the age of 25, as we observed a specific age-related difficulty when it came to repayment discipline.
Furthermore, our analysts are monitoring Bank ’s credit portfolio on an ongoing basis. We provide RUB 1bn of finance to the Russian population every month, which constitutes a relatively small amount. On the other hand, it is just enough to subject our credit portfolio to a thorough analysis and take ad-hoc decisions when needed. In light of Bank ’s 70 branches across Russia, I may add that working in the Russian regions has proven easier than in the capital, as loan repayment rates have historically been higher in the periphery. In total, our current private-loan default rate amounts to only 6 percent.
In contrast, in the realm of small and mid-size businesses we have so far practically not seen any arrears at all, which may be due to the fact that we have just entered this market. Thanks to our cautious approach to risk, I am convinced that our default rate in this segment will be even lower than during our private lending activities.
Let us not forget that consumer lending in general is a mass market that is dominated by standardized processes. SMB lending, on the other hand, allows for an individual approach which takes into consideration the multitude of layers of a credit request. Thus, prior to being forwarded to our centralized Credit Committee in Moscow, every corporate credit submission is carefully prepared in one of Bank ’s regional branches. For example, our regional credit specialists conduct site visits during which they value the respective company’s market standing, monitor contractual partners, and go through a potential client’s consolidated financial statements. Such an in-depth approach enables us to select the top tier out of 10 applications.
- Your bank has been in existence on the Russian market since 1993. This is an important period in the relatively young Russian banking sector. Bank  has lived through more than one crisis. Based on your experience, which should be the strategy of today’s commercial banks in Russia?
- Dmitry Leus: The survival strategy for niche commercial banks in contemporary Russia with its economic uncertainties consists in sound risk management.
From a business perspective, the secret of success for weathering any crisis consists in the strong will of the bank’s owners and stakeholders to preserve and develop their business. The first thing which is being taught in business administration courses is the theory of economic choice – that is, the choice one must make when faced with two or more alternative uses of a resource. Crisis economics simply dramatizes this basic economic choice.
The banking industry today presents higher risks than other economic sectors. To take these risks is the choice of every shareholder and manager. I arrive at work before 8 am and leave the bank after 8 pm. This is the only way to work in order to achieve good results. The banking industry consists of a multitude of little things hardly recognizable to outsiders. However, taken together they critically impact the bank’s financial results. Every aspect of the business must receive its due attention, starting with administrative tasks and ending with the closure of big transactions. There are a million of details which may escape the attention of the bank’s managing director. A permanently heightened state of alert should therefore become the responsible banker’s second nature. In my opinion, a bank controlled and managed by its owners is the best guarantee of success.
In addition, the right risk management does not consist in doing the maths and then ticking the box. Rather, it consists in picking up the faint signal of today that will become tomorrow’s big challenge – a practice the Austrian economist and management consultant Peter Drucker has called the anticipation of a future that has already happened. Risks are present in every form of business. However, some risks are balanced by reasonable rewards, others are not. The essence of entrepreneurship consists in getting this balance right.